银河期货：金银反弹面临压力 春节流动性或成变数

Macro News - Iran's Foreign Minister confirmed that US-Iran nuclear talks will take place on Friday in Oman, despite previous reports of cancellation due to disagreements on the focus of the negotiations [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 9.9%, with a 90.1% chance of maintaining current rates. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 23.2%, while the chance of maintaining rates is 75.1%. By June, the probability of a 25 basis point cut increases to 46.0% [1] Market Analysis - The gold and silver markets experienced volatility, initially rising due to weak ADP non-farm employment data, which pressured the US dollar. However, following the opening of the US stock market, concerns over AMD's disappointing future earnings guidance negatively impacted tech stocks and the Nasdaq index, subsequently dragging down gold and silver prices [1] - Currently, the gold and silver markets are in a rebound and recovery phase after a sharp decline. London gold and silver prices have rebounded to key Fibonacci retracement levels of 50% and 61.8%, respectively, which are also near significant integer levels [1] - In the medium to long term, the macroeconomic environment remains favorable for gold and silver, but caution is advised in the short term, especially with the upcoming Chinese New Year potentially leading to decreased market liquidity. Risk control should be prioritized in trading strategies [1]