NuScale Power Corporation (SMR): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - NuScale Power Corporation is positioned as a leader in small modular reactor (SMR) technology, with significant upside potential despite execution risks [3][4][5] Company Overview - NuScale Power Corporation specializes in small modular reactor technology and is the only U.S. company with NRC-certified SMR technology [3] - The company's stock was trading at $17.48 as of January 30, 2023, and $20.03 as of January 22, 2026, reflecting a 64% decline from its peak in October 2025, but a 104% increase year over year [3][4] Financial Position - The company has a market capitalization of $5.7 billion, zero debt, and approximately $700 million in cash, allowing it to sustain its development phase [4] - NuScale is currently burning $40–45 million per quarter and remains pre-revenue at scale [4] Investment Appeal - The core investment appeal lies in NuScale's VOYGR SMR platform, which features modular, factory-built nuclear solutions with passive safety systems and 36-month construction timelines [4] - The company has exclusive commercialization partnerships, including a significant agreement with ENTRA1 Energy and a memorandum of understanding with the Tennessee Valley Authority for up to 6 GW of capacity, marking the largest SMR deployment program in U.S. history [5] Market Dynamics - The growth narrative is supported by macro trends, including increasing electricity demand from AI and data centers, with hyperscalers investing tens of billions in nuclear-backed infrastructure [5] Risks and Challenges - The near-term outlook is limited by the lack of binding customer contracts, delays in Romania's investment decision, and the non-binding nature of the TVA agreement [6] - Execution risks are highlighted by the cancellation of NuScale's Carbon Free Power Project and ongoing dilution from equity raises [6] Valuation Considerations - Valuation outcomes are highly scenario-dependent, with bullish cases relying on contract conversions and commercialization progress, while bearish cases focus on delays, dilution, and competitive pressures [7]