真正的避险资产？债市修复持续，波动率明显下降

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen below 1.81%, indicating a recovery in the bond market, while discussions about the "safe haven" attributes of Chinese government bonds are increasing amid global asset volatility [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - As of February 5, the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.808%, down from nearly 1.9% a month ago, reflecting a decline of over 9 basis points [1][2]. - The 30-year government bond yield also showed a gradual decline, with the active bond "25超长特别国债06" yielding 2.239%, down 1.2 basis points [2][3]. - The bond market has experienced a recovery since January 7, with the 10-year bond yield dropping a cumulative 9.05 basis points and the 30-year bond yield down 9.6 basis points [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - On February 5, the central bank resumed 14-day reverse repos, injecting 300 billion yuan into the market, which positively impacted the bond market [3]. - The central bank's net injection for the day was 645 billion yuan, following the maturity of 354 billion yuan in reverse repos [3]. - The central bank's actions, including a significant increase in net bond purchases in January, have improved market sentiment and contributed to a downward shift in the yield curve [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Most institutions predict that the bond market will maintain a strong but volatile performance leading up to the Spring Festival, with increased information flow post-holiday [1][6]. - Analysts expect the 10-year government bond yield may further decline to around 1.75%, while the 30-year yield could stabilize around 2.15% [7]. - The bond market is anticipated to remain stable within the range of 1.8% to 1.9% for the 10-year yield in February, influenced by stable economic expectations and reduced volatility [7][8].