【光大食饮&海外】百胜中国：25Q4 业绩超预期，26 年同店收入及利润率预计继续改善

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Yum China (9987.HK) has exceeded expectations in Q4 2025, with continued improvement in same-store revenue and profit margins anticipated for 2026 [2][12]. Group 1: Company Performance - The total number of KFC's Kenyue Coffee stores has reached 2,200, contributing to a mid-single-digit sales growth for KFC [3]. - KPRO, focusing on healthy light meals, added over 200 stores in 2025, surpassing 200 locations, resulting in double-digit sales growth for KFC, with plans to exceed 400 stores in 2026 [3]. - The WOW brand of Pizza Hut expanded into over 100 new cities in 2025, further increasing its total store count and aiding brand penetration in lower-tier markets [3]. - The "Twin Star" stores, featuring KFC and Pizza Hut side by side, opened approximately 40 pairs in 2025, with accelerated expansion expected in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Sales Growth - Core products such as KFC's spicy original chicken and crispy golden chicken wings contributed to high single-digit sales growth in 2025 [3]. - Pizza Hut sold over 200 million pizzas in 2025, with the new handmade thin-crust pizza receiving positive feedback, accounting for one-third of total sales and attracting many young consumers [3]. - Pizza Hut introduced freshly made bread-based burgers, tapping into the single-serve market, with single-serve sales growing at a high double-digit rate in 2025 [3][14]. Group 3: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $1.027 billion and $1.109 billion, respectively, reflecting increases of 2% and 3% [4][14]. - The newly added net profit forecast for 2028 is $1.183 billion, with EPS estimates for 2026-2028 at $2.90, $3.13, and $3.34 [4][14]. - Current stock prices correspond to P/E ratios of 17x, 16x, and 15x for 2026-2028, indicating strong digital and supply chain capabilities, with growth potential in channel penetration for its two core brands [4][14]. Group 4: Financial Metrics Overview - Projected revenue (in million USD) for 2024-2028 is as follows: 11,303 (2024), 11,797 (2025), 12,671 (2026E), 13,403 (2027E), and 14,036 (2028E) [5][15]. - Projected net profit (in million USD) for the same period is: 911 (2024), 934 (2025), 1,027 (2026E), 1,109 (2027E), and 1,183 (2028E) [5][15]. - The expected revenue growth rates are 3.0% (2024), 4.4% (2025), 7.4% (2026E), 5.8% (2027E), and 4.7% (2028E) [5][15].