Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang·2026-02-05 12:25Core Viewpoint - Foreign institutions are optimistic about China's market outlook for 2026, citing strong manufacturing, exports, and improving corporate profits as key factors for economic resilience [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3.3%, with China's growth forecast increased by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - China's economy is expected to maintain a "dual-track growth" pattern, with weak domestic demand recovery and strong exports continuing [2]. - Exports are projected to grow at around 5% in 2026, driven by China's manufacturing competitiveness and undervalued currency [2]. Consumer Trends - Foreign investors have strong expectations regarding China's consumption policies, with government consumption expected to accelerate, potentially offsetting weak personal consumption [3]. - Fiscal policy is anticipated to remain "proactive and stable," with a fiscal deficit around 4% and a slight increase in local government special bond quotas to support key infrastructure investments [3]. Corporate Profitability - Corporate profits are expected to continue recovering, with significant improvements noted in traditional sectors such as materials, finance, and industry [3]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rebound, positively impacting corporate profitability in a manufacturing-driven economy [3]. Investment Focus - Foreign capital is increasingly focused on sectors such as AI, aerospace, and healthcare, with a structural emphasis on specific sectors like aviation and semiconductor industries [5]. - The Chinese government’s support for domestic AI models and chip manufacturing is expected to bolster technology stocks [5]. AI and Power Sector - The power sector is identified as the most certain investment direction within AI, driven by the need for sufficient energy supply for technological growth [6]. - The anticipated power shortages in the U.S. may lead to increased demand for Chinese-manufactured power equipment, enhancing investment opportunities in this area [6].