StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - StubHub Holdings, Inc. is viewed as a misunderstood IPO, currently trading below its debut price of $23.50, despite positive ratings from major banks like Goldman Sachs, which has a target price of $46 [3][5] Company Overview - StubHub operates a ticketing marketplace for live events globally and holds approximately 50% of the U.S. secondary ticketing market, benefiting from strong network effects, deep liquidity, and brand trust [3][5] - The company is expanding into the primary ticketing market, which represents a strategic shift involving direct contracts with venues and event organizers [3][4] Financial Projections - Based on projected earnings for 2026, a 20x earnings multiple suggests a valuation near $50 per share, which is reasonable for a leading company with consistent growth and competitive advantages [4] - Even under conservative assumptions, a mid-to-high $30 valuation appears defensible when compared to other marketplace and transaction-based businesses [4] Market Position and Investor Sentiment - Despite strong fundamentals, StubHub's stock has been overlooked since its IPO, creating a mismatch between improving business momentum and investor attention [5] - The current share price reflects significant skepticism, but StubHub's dominant market position and growing presence in primary ticketing may lead to a substantial rerating for patient investors [5][6]