去年广义财政支出首次突破40万亿，今年支出如何扩大|财税益侃

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expected slight growth in local fiscal revenue for 2026, driven by a more proactive fiscal policy implemented in 2025, which saw a significant increase in fiscal spending despite a decline in fiscal revenue [1][11]. Fiscal Policy and Spending - In 2025, the broad fiscal expenditure reached approximately 40.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, while fiscal revenue was about 27.38 trillion yuan, showing a decline of approximately 2.9% [1][3]. - The fiscal deficit exceeded revenue by about 12.65 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.3% [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and ensuring necessary expenditure [10]. Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - The 2025 national general public budget expenditure was approximately 28.74 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 1%, while government fund expenditure was about 11.29 trillion yuan, increasing by 11.3% [2]. - The growth rate of general public budget expenditure outpaced revenue growth by 2.7 percentage points, reflecting the active role of fiscal policy in countering economic downturns [2]. - Key areas of expenditure related to social security, education, and health saw growth rates of 6.7%, 3.2%, and 5.7% respectively, indicating a focus on improving living standards [2]. Challenges in Revenue Generation - The general public budget revenue for 2025 was approximately 21.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous year, influenced by insufficient domestic demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [6]. - Tax revenue showed a slight increase of 0.8% to about 17.64 trillion yuan, while non-tax revenue fell by 11.3% to approximately 3.97 trillion yuan [6]. - The decline in land transfer income, a significant source of government fund revenue, was notable, with a drop of 14.7% to about 4.15 trillion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline [7]. Future Outlook and Recommendations - For 2026, fiscal revenue is expected to remain subdued, with projections indicating slight growth in local fiscal revenue, such as a 3% increase in Guangdong and a 2% increase in Zhejiang [11]. - Experts suggest that the government may need to increase borrowing to expand fiscal spending, with a projected deficit rate of around 4% and potential issuance of special bonds [12]. - The focus for 2026 will likely shift towards enhancing spending on social welfare and consumer support, including increased subsidies for elderly care and education [12].