英国央行维持3.75%基准利率 预计通胀年中回归2%目标

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, marking the sixth consecutive time the rate has remained unchanged, with a previous rate cut occurring in August 2024 [1] Inflation Trends - The UK's CPI inflation rate is projected to be 3.4% by December 2025, still above the 2% target but down 0.4 percentage points from the peak in September [2] - Inflation is expected to accelerate its decline starting in April 2025, potentially reaching 2.1% by the second quarter of 2026, driven by energy subsidies and falling wholesale gas prices [2] - Key measures contributing to the decline in inflation include energy bill reductions and extended fuel tax cuts [2] Economic Growth - The UK economy is experiencing persistent weakness, with potential GDP growth of only 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025, significantly impacted by tightened monetary policy and uncertainty [3] - A slight recovery in growth is anticipated in the first quarter of 2026, with an expected increase to 0.2%, although household consumption and business investment remain weak [3] - The savings rate continues to be higher than pre-pandemic levels [3] Labor Market - The unemployment rate is stable at 5.1%, with a further loosening of the labor market indicated by a decrease in job vacancy rates [4] - Private sector wage growth has slowed to 3.6%, while public sector wage growth remains high at 7.9% [4] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 5.3% by mid-2026 [4] Policy Direction and Risk Balance - The MPC emphasizes that the core goal of monetary policy is to ensure inflation not only returns to 2% but remains stable at that level in the medium term [5] - While the risk of sticky inflation has significantly decreased, weak demand and a loose labor market may still pose risks of inflation falling below the target [5] - Future interest rate cuts are possible but will be approached with caution, depending on inflation outlook; rapid or excessive cuts could lead to sticky inflation, while insufficient cuts may exacerbate economic downturn risks [5] - Factors such as AI technology application, global trade policy changes, and energy price fluctuations will be key variables affecting future inflation and economic growth, with the Bank of England monitoring these risks closely [5]