黄力晨:市场减少降息押注 美元上涨限制金价

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a weekly high of $5091 but failing to break the $5100 resistance level, leading to a decline and stabilization around $4878 [1][5][6]. Price Movements - On February 5, gold peaked at $5091 but fell below $5000, hitting a low of $4849 before rebounding to $4970. The following day, it opened higher at $5023 but faced resistance, dropping to $4790 and then rebounding to $4940, currently trading at $4878 [1][5]. - The price drop was attributed to profit-taking after a significant rise, geopolitical risk easing, and a decrease in market risk aversion, resulting in a nearly $1200 decline over three days [1][5][6]. Market Sentiment - The market's sentiment shifted following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, leading to a reassessment of the Fed's monetary policy stance. This change reduced expectations for a mid-year interest rate cut, with the probability of a June rate cut now at 46% [2][6]. - The strengthening of the US dollar, which has rebounded from its lowest levels since March 2022, further limited gold's upward potential [2][6]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4850, $4790, and $4700, while resistance levels are at $4950, $5030, and $5100 [3][7]. - Technical indicators suggest a potential for further declines, with the 5-day moving average and MACD showing bearish signals, while KDJ and RSI indicators indicate a downward trend [2][6].