Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell GILD Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 10, with consensus estimates for sales at $7.57 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.83 [1][5] Financial Estimates - The earnings estimate for 2025 has decreased to $8.13 from $8.18 per share over the past 60 days, while the estimate for 2026 has increased to $8.60 from $8.56 [1] - The current earnings estimates for Q1 and Q2 are $1.83 and $1.90, respectively, with a trend showing a decrease of 3.17% for Q1 and an increase of 2.70% for Q2 over the past 60 days [2] Earnings Performance - GILD has a strong earnings surprise history, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 7.80%, including a 14.88% beat in the last reported quarter [2][3] Product Performance - Gilead's HIV franchise, particularly Biktarvy and Descovy, remains the primary growth driver, with Biktarvy accounting for over 52% of the U.S. treatment market [5][8] - The estimated sales for Biktarvy and Descovy are $3.8 billion and $703 million, respectively, with Yeztugo contributing $39 million in the third quarter [9][10] - The liver disease portfolio has seen increased sales, particularly for Livdelzi, while cell therapy sales are expected to decline due to competitive pressures [12][13] Market Position and Valuation - GILD's shares have increased by 49.2% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 31% [15] - The current price/earnings ratio for GILD is 16.85x forward earnings, higher than its historical mean of 11.17x but lower than the large-cap pharma industry average of 18.13x [18] Strategic Initiatives - Gilead is focusing on innovation within its HIV portfolio and has received positive data from phase III studies for new treatments [19][20] - The company is also pursuing strategic collaborations, including partnerships with Merck to enhance its product offerings [25]