Canadian National Stock Rises 2.8% Since Q4 Earnings Release

Core Insights - Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding expectations, leading to a 2.8% stock price increase since the earnings release on January 30 [2][8]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share were $1.49 (C$2.03), surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.2% and reflecting a 14.6% year-over-year increase [3]. - Revenues reached $3.20 billion (C$4.46 billion), exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5% and rising 2.8% year over year [3]. - Revenue ton-miles (RTMs) increased by 4% year over year, while carloads rose by 2.9% [3][8]. - Operating expenses remained flat at $2.73 billion year over year, attributed to effective cost-cutting measures [4]. - Operating income grew by 6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, with the operating ratio improving by 140 basis points to 61.2% [4][8]. Segment Performance - Freight revenues, which accounted for 97% of total revenues, increased by 3% year over year [5]. - Specific freight revenue growth included petroleum and chemicals (4%), grain and fertilizers (6%), intermodal (10%), and automotive (4%), while metals and minerals, forest products, and coal saw declines of 4%, 8%, and 1%, respectively [5][6]. Liquidity and Capital Management - CNI ended Q4 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of C$350 million, down from C$389 million at the end of Q4 2024 [7]. - Long-term debt increased to C$20.3 billion from C$19.7 billion year over year [7]. - CNI generated C$2.23 billion from operating activities, with free cash flow reported at C$995 million [7]. Dividend and Share Buyback - The board approved a 3% increase in the 2026 dividend, raising it to C$0.9150 per share, marking the 30th consecutive year of dividend increases [8]. - A new normal course issuer bid was approved, allowing the purchase of up to 24 million common shares for cancellation between February 4, 2026, and February 3, 2027 [9]. Outlook - For full-year 2026, CNI expects adjusted earnings per share growth to slightly exceed volume growth, with planned capital investments of approximately C$2.8 billion [10]. - Volume growth in terms of RTMs is anticipated to remain flat [10].