欧洲对美国：既不信任 又离不开 它能承受脱钩之重吗？

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is increasingly emphasizing the need for independence from the United States in trade, energy, and technology, particularly in light of recent geopolitical tensions and the unpredictability of U.S. policies under President Trump [2][11]. Trade - Strengthening trade ties with other countries is a crucial strategy for Europe to reduce its dependence on the U.S. The EU has recently signed trade agreements with India and the Mercosur countries after decades of negotiations [3][12]. - Despite these agreements, analysts believe that neither the Mercosur countries nor India can replace the U.S. in European trade over the next decade. The EU and the U.S. have the largest bilateral trade and investment relationship globally, with trade in goods and services projected to reach €1.68 trillion (approximately $2 trillion) in 2024, accounting for nearly 30% of global trade [3][12]. Economic Dependence - The EU relies heavily on the U.S. for exports, particularly in sectors like automobiles and pharmaceuticals. Germany, as the largest economy in the EU, views the U.S. as its primary trading partner [5][14]. - The degree of Europe's dependence on the U.S. is significantly higher than the reverse, as Europe is export-oriented and lacks sufficient domestic resources, while the U.S. economy is relatively closed and self-sufficient [5][14]. Technology - Europe lacks large tech giants comparable to those in the U.S., leading to a heavy reliance on American digital services. The most valuable tech company in Europe, ASML, has a market value only about one-third of that of the lowest-valued U.S. tech giant, Tesla [5][14]. - There is a call for Europe to invest heavily in developing its own tech giants to catch up with U.S. digital services, cloud infrastructure, and data centers [6][15]. Energy - Europe is working to reduce its long-term dependence on Russian oil and gas, which became a strategic vulnerability following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The EU has significantly increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. to fill the gap left by Russian energy supplies [6][15]. - Before the conflict, Russia supplied 40% of the EU's natural gas needs. In the previous year, U.S. LNG accounted for nearly one-quarter of the EU's gas demand, indicating a substantial shift in energy sourcing [8][17]. - The U.S. has used energy as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations, compelling the EU to commit to purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [6][15].