ConocoPhillips Misses Q4 Earnings Estimates on Lower Prices

Core Insights - ConocoPhillips (COP) reported Q4 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.02, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.08, and down from $1.98 in the prior year [1][8] - Quarterly revenues were $14.2 billion, a decline from $14.7 billion year-over-year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.9 billion [1][8] Production and Sales - Total production averaged 2,320 thousand barrels of oil-equivalent per day (MBoe/d), an increase from 2,183 MBoe/d in the same quarter last year, with 48% being crude oil [3] - Crude oil production rose to 1,115 MBbls/d from 1,070 MBbls/d year-over-year [3] - Natural gas liquids production increased to 413 MBbls/d from 362 MBbls/d, while bitumen production decreased to 123 MBbls/d from 139 MBbls/d [4] - Natural gas production was 4,016 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), up from 3,674 MMcf/d year-over-year [4] Pricing - Average realized oil equivalent price fell to $42.46 per barrel from $52.37 a year ago [5] - Average realized crude oil price decreased to $60.22 per barrel from $71.04 [5] - Average realized natural gas price dropped to $3.72 per thousand cubic feet from $5.12 [5] - Realized natural gas liquids price fell to $19.02 per barrel from $23.93 [5] Expenses and Financials - Total expenses slightly increased to $11.9 billion from $11.8 billion in the same period of 2024 [6] - Cost of purchased commodities rose to $5.2 billion from $5.1 billion year-over-year [6] - Exploration costs increased to $138 million from $71 million in the comparable period [6] - As of December 31, 2025, ConocoPhillips had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with total long-term debt of $22.4 billion and short-term debt of $1.02 billion [7] Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, production is expected to be between 2.30-2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED), considering weather-related downtime [10] - For 2026, average production is projected to be between 2.33 and 2.36 MMBOED [10] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are anticipated to be around $12 billion, with adjusted operating costs expected to total about $10.2 billion [11] - ConocoPhillips plans to return approximately 45% of cash flow from operations to shareholders in 2026 [11]