交易员料美联储将比预期更早降息 时间可能在6月份

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market data shows signs of weakness, leading traders to anticipate the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut to be moved up from July to June, with a second cut expected before October, whereas previously, a second cut was not expected until January 2027 [1][4]. Group 1: Labor Market Impact - The job vacancy report and initial jobless claims have influenced the drop in Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures yields by approximately 9 basis points [3][5]. - The bond yield curve continues to exhibit a "bull steepening" pattern, reflecting recent expectations of declining interest rates [3][5]. Group 2: Treasury Yields Changes - The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching its largest single-day drop in nearly three months, indicating significant market reactions to labor market data [3][5]. - The changes in U.S. Treasury yields for various maturities include a decrease of 8.0 basis points for the two-year, 8.3 basis points for the five-year, and 6.6 basis points for the ten-year [4][6].