1月份中国大宗商品价格指数创2022年7月份以来新高

Core Insights - In January 2026, China's Commodity Price Index (CBPI) reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1] - The increase in the index is attributed to optimistic business expectations and ongoing production expansion, supported by new policies, while also facing challenges from international geopolitical changes and commodity price volatility [1] Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous price index surged to 159.6 points, with a month-on-month increase of 9.9% and a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [2] - The chemical price index rose to 99.3 points, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [2] - The black metal price index increased to 79.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 2.2% and a year-on-year decline of 1.6% [2] - The agricultural product price index slightly increased to 98.3 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [2] - The mineral price index fell to 71.3 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [2] - The energy price index declined to 94.6 points, with a month-on-month drop of 3.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% [2] Commodity Performance - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) saw price increases, while 17 (34%) experienced price declines in January compared to December 2025 [2] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases were lithium carbonate (up 48.4%), refined tin (up 20.2%), and refined nickel (up 19.5%) [2] - The commodities with the largest price declines were corrugated paper (down 13.1%), caustic soda (down 7%), and coke (down 6.9%) [2] Geopolitical and Market Trends - Tensions in North America and the Middle East, along with a weakening US dollar, have contributed to rising international oil prices and record highs in copper prices [3] - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs in January, but significant declines were observed towards the end of the month due to margin adjustments and Federal Reserve announcements [3] - Future projections suggest that gold prices may experience both upward trends and volatility, with ongoing geopolitical risks providing long-term support despite short-term fluctuations [3]