4 Mining Stocks Likely to Outperform Earnings Estimates in Q4

Industry Overview - Commodity markets provided a supportive backdrop for non-ferrous miners in Q4 2025, with strength in precious metals and copper, contributing to a favorable earnings season for the Zacks Basic Materials sector, which is expected to see a 2.8% increase in earnings driven by a 9.5% rise in revenues due to higher commodity prices [1][2] Company Performance - Four mining companies identified as likely to beat earnings estimates this season are HudBay Minerals, Lundin Mining, First Quantum Minerals, and Teck Resources, all expected to deliver improved year-over-year results [2][8] Commodity Price Dynamics - Gold prices reached a high of $4,557 per ounce, with average prices up 55% year-over-year to $4,135 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank purchases, with quarterly demand hitting a record 1,303 tons [4] - Silver prices also saw significant increases, reaching a high of $82.67 per ounce, with average prices up 74% year-over-year, supported by supply deficits and steady industrial demand [5] - Copper prices averaged $5.21 per pound, a 22% increase from the previous year, fueled by demand from electrification and renewable energy projects amid supply concerns [6] Company-Specific Insights - HudBay Minerals has an Earnings ESP of +0.40% and is expected to report a 127.8% increase in earnings year-over-year, with production figures showing declines across copper, gold, zinc, and silver, but offset by higher metal prices [13][14] - First Quantum Minerals has an Earnings ESP of +26.15% and is projected to see a 75% increase in earnings year-over-year, despite a 10% decline in copper production [15][16] - Teck Resources has an Earnings ESP of +25.77% and is expected to report a 60.6% increase in earnings year-over-year, with copper production rising 9.9% but sales down 5.1% [18][20] - Lundin Mining has an Earnings ESP of +11.49% and is anticipated to see a 150% year-over-year increase in earnings, with copper production down 14% but offset by higher prices [22][23]