美国债市：就业数据和股市抛售提振国债上涨 收益率曲线陡化

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury bonds closed higher, with short and mid-term bonds leading the gains, driven by weaker-than-expected labor market indicators and supportive factors from the UK central bank's dovish policy statement and a sell-off in the US stock market [1][3]. Labor Market Indicators - Three labor market indicators released in the morning session were weaker than expected, including Challenger layoffs, weekly initial jobless claims, and JOLTS job openings, which contributed to the rise in Treasury bonds [1][3]. UK Central Bank Influence - The UK central bank maintained its interest rates, but the voting result was close at 5 to 4, indicating a potential for further rate cuts, which led to a steepening of the UK bond yield curve and a dovish repricing in interest rate swaps [5]. Treasury Yield Movements - The 2 to 5-year Treasury yields fell by at least 8 basis points, while the 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.21%, declining by over 7 basis points on the day [4][5]. - The implied rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year expanded to approximately 55 basis points, up from 49 basis points at the previous close [5]. Swap Spread Trends - Long-end swap spreads continued to narrow, with indications that positions for widening spreads are still being deleveraged, and the 30-year spread reached its lowest level since mid-December [6]. Current Yield Rates - As of 3:11 PM Eastern Time, the yield rates were as follows: 2-year at 3.4833%, 5-year at 3.7516%, 10-year at 4.2098%, and 30-year at 4.8633%, with the spread between 5 and 30-year yields at 110.99 basis points and between 2 and 10-year yields at 72.45 basis points [2][6].