Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks to Launch Predictive Insights Tracking U.S. Retail Supply and Demand

Core Insights - The Retail Momentum Index is a new data and analytics solution created through a collaboration between Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks, aimed at providing a leading indicator of retail trade activity in the U.S. [1][2] - The index integrates various data sources, including shipping data and business activity signals, to offer a comprehensive view of retail momentum, allowing businesses to detect trends before they appear in traditional reports [2][3] Retail Momentum Index Details - The Retail Momentum Index will utilize adjusted monthly returns from the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Monthly Retail Sales and Food Services series as its benchmark [3] - Early insights indicate that retail activity remained soft during the 2025 holiday season, but signs of stabilization are evident, with improved credit health for U.S. retail businesses following three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [4][5] Performance Indicators - Year-over-year momentum was negative in Q4 2025, but the average decline improved to 10.3%, a significant reduction from 21.0% in Q4 2024, indicating a slowdown in contraction [5] - Returns volumes fell significantly, with an average decline of 38.4% from 2023 to 2024 and 54.5% from 2024 to 2025, suggesting improved demand quality and more disciplined spending [5] Future Outlook - Retail activity is expected to remain broadly stable through at least the first half of 2026, unless major regulatory or policy changes occur [6] - The launch of the Retail Momentum Index marks the beginning of a broader collaboration between Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks to develop additional market insights [6]