丁祖昱：淡季不冷场，小阳春可期，年初压力大，全年会不错

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities has entered a traditional seasonal downturn, characterized by overall cooling, increasing differentiation, and some bright spots. Supply and demand are contracting simultaneously, with developers showing low enthusiasm for sales and buyers exhibiting strong wait-and-see sentiment, leading to a prominent "look but don't buy" phenomenon [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a cyclical downturn, with new home supply and demand both decreasing significantly. In many cities, new home transaction areas have dropped by 30% to 60% month-on-month, and year-on-year figures show a 20% decline, marking the lowest monthly figure in nearly a year [4]. - Developers are entering a rest period, significantly reducing the scale of new launches, with cities like Shenzhen and Nanjing experiencing supply gaps. The average absorption rate for new projects in Shanghai was only 16% in January [4]. Market Differentiation - Differentiation is evident across various dimensions: - Between cities and within city districts, core first-tier and strong second-tier cities (like Shenzhen and Hangzhou) show slightly higher visitor and subscription activity, while weaker second-tier and suburban areas are experiencing significant cooling [3]. - Product differentiation is notable, with affordable housing and high-end projects performing well, while ordinary improvement and suburban affordable housing continue to struggle [3]. - The second-hand housing market is becoming increasingly dominant, with transaction activity significantly outpacing new homes [3]. Land Market Trends - The land market is characterized by slowed supply, bottom-price transactions, and dominance by state-owned enterprises. Most cities are seeing a decline in transaction volume, with only a few core plots attracting interest, primarily from state-owned and central enterprises [5]. High-End Project Performance - High-end improvement projects in core locations are achieving high absorption rates, with cities like Hangzhou and Tianjin reporting rates of 62% and 68%, respectively. Notable projects include Shanghai's Taikoo Li, which sold 50 out of 60 units on the first day, achieving an 83% absorption rate [7]. Second-Hand Market Activity - In January, the transaction area for second-hand homes in 20 major cities reached approximately 1,483 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 25%, marking the second-highest level in 13 months [15]. - The second-hand market is showing a trend of stable volume and weak prices, with many cities experiencing price declines, particularly in lower-priced segments [17][20]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its seasonal downturn in February due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with both new and second-hand home transactions likely to decline. However, a recovery is anticipated in March, with the potential for a "small spring" in the market as quality projects are launched [22].