Crude Prices Little Changed Awaiting US-Iran Negotiations

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing mixed movements due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a bullish EIA report indicating a decline in crude supplies [1][2] Group 1: Market Movements - March WTI crude oil is down by $0.06 (-0.09%), while March RBOB gasoline is up by $0.0154 (+0.81%) [1] - Crude prices are under pressure from a stronger dollar, but losses are limited due to a positive weekly EIA report showing a larger-than-expected drop in crude supplies [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Hopes for easing tensions in the Middle East are influencing crude prices, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi set to meet with US envoy Witkoff to discuss Iran's nuclear program and potential sanctions relief [2] - President Trump's recent comments about US military readiness in the Middle East have contributed to a rally in crude oil prices, reaching a 5.75-month high [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Crude oil support is bolstered by President Trump's decision to roll back tariffs on India in exchange for India ceasing Russian oil purchases, with Russian crude deliveries to India dropping to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in December [4] - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising to 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December, is contributing to global oil supply and exerting bearish pressure on prices [4] Group 4: Ongoing Conflicts - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to maintain restrictions on Russian crude, which is bullish for oil prices as the Kremlin indicates no resolution is in sight [5] Group 5: Production and Consumption Estimates - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate down to 3.7 million bpd from 3.815 million bpd [6] - The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased its 2026 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd while reducing its energy consumption estimate to 95.37 quadrillion British thermal units (btu) [6]