Molina (MOH) Q4 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates

Core Insights - Molina reported $11.38 billion in revenue for the quarter ended December 2025, marking an 8.3% year-over-year increase and a surprise of +5.32% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.8 billion [1] - The company experienced an EPS of -$2.75, a significant decline compared to $5.05 a year ago, resulting in an EPS surprise of -733.2% against the consensus estimate of $0.43 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Molina's total Membership Care Ratio (MCR) was 94.6%, exceeding the estimated 93% [4] - MCR for Medicare was reported at 97.5%, higher than the average estimate of 94.3% [4] - MCR for Marketplace stood at 99%, compared to the average estimate of 94.8% [4] - Total ending membership reached 6 million, surpassing the average estimate of 5.52 million [4] - Medicaid membership was 4.57 million, slightly below the estimated 4.59 million [4] Revenue Breakdown - Premium revenue totaled $10.72 billion, exceeding the estimated $10.22 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +7.3% [4] - Premium tax revenue was reported at $538 million, significantly higher than the estimated $436.64 million, representing a +40.5% year-over-year change [4] - Medicare premium revenue reached $1.55 billion, above the $1.36 billion estimate, indicating a +19.9% change year over year [4] - Medicaid premium revenue was $8.07 billion, slightly above the estimated $7.76 billion, with a +0.3% year-over-year change [4] - Marketplace premium revenue was $1.09 billion, exceeding the estimated $1.06 billion, showing a substantial +67.1% increase year over year [4] - Investment income was reported at $98 million, slightly below the estimated $100.1 million, reflecting an -11.7% year-over-year decline [4] - Other revenue amounted to $24 million, surpassing the estimated $22.81 million, with a +9.1% year-over-year increase [4] Stock Performance - Molina's shares returned +0.9% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.5% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating potential underperformance in the near term [3]