中国炼化产业向高端化持续提升，成全球市场压舱石

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese refining industry is undergoing significant structural adjustments driven by the "dual carbon" goals and rapid development of the new energy vehicle sector, as highlighted in the "2025 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" released by the China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technological Research Institute [1] Group 1: Industry Structural Changes - The shift towards "oil conversion" and "oil-to-chemical" has become a key direction for structural adjustments in the Chinese refining industry [2] - By 2025, domestic refined oil production is expected to decrease from 433 million tons in 2021 to 414 million tons, a decline of 4.4%, with the refined oil yield dropping from 63% to 56% [2] - Chemical light oil production is projected to increase from 126 million tons to 184 million tons, a growth of 46.7%, with the yield rising to 25.0% [2] - The industry has eliminated or replaced 35.7 million tons/year of outdated capacity, enhancing secondary processing and deep refining capabilities, contributing to significant progress in green, low-carbon, and intelligent transformation [2] Group 2: Capacity and Market Dynamics - By 2025, China's refining capacity is expected to reach 940 million tons/year, maintaining its position as the largest globally, with a net increase of 66.3 million tons/year compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] - The industry concentration has improved, with major players like Sinopec, PetroChina, Sinochem, CNOOC, and private and foreign enterprises forming a competitive landscape, leading to a "four-way division" of the market by 2025 [3] - The average scale of domestic refineries is projected to reach 7.17 million tons/year by 2025, nearing the average level of 7.5 million tons/year in the United States [3] - The share of refining capacity from large-scale refineries (over 10 million tons) is expected to increase to 58.4%, up 5.7 percentage points from 2021 [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the refining industry will shift from "scale-driven" to "value creation," with overall refining capacity expected to remain stable despite structural adjustments [5] - By 2030, domestic refining capacity is projected to be around 920 million tons/year, a net decrease of 20 million tons/year compared to the end of 2025 [5] - The industry will focus on "reducing oil while increasing chemicals and specialties," with a comprehensive and in-depth green low-carbon transformation and continuous enhancement of technological innovation capabilities [6]