专家：光伏接下来的调整将更剧烈

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment period, with significant challenges in supply and demand dynamics, while also achieving remarkable growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2][12][13]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry has seen milestone achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan," including an annual output value exceeding 1 trillion yuan, total exports surpassing 180 billion USD, cumulative installed capacity exceeding 1200 GW, and annual new installations exceeding 300 GW [12][13]. - The cumulative new installed capacity during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is 4.5 times that of the "13th Five-Year Plan," and the cumulative new power generation is 3.6 times higher [5][12]. Current Challenges - The industry is facing a new round of deep adjustments, with the potential for more severe corrections and faster market clearing [4][12]. - The cancellation of the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, may further exacerbate supply and demand issues, leading to significant market reshuffling in the second half of the year [4][12]. Regulatory Focus - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes that combating "involution" is a key focus for the industry in 2026, with efforts to balance supply and demand through various regulatory measures [6][16]. - Key strategies include enhancing standards and quality supervision, promoting innovation, and deepening international cooperation to support the industry's global competitiveness [6][17]. Future Directions - The industry is encouraged to shift from scale and price competition to value competition, focusing on technological advancements and collaborative development [7][17]. - The manufacturing sector should prioritize intelligent, green, and integrated development, including smart manufacturing and energy-efficient technologies [8][17].