银河证券：看好铜价后市继续上涨 铜矿核心标的配置价值凸显

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities highlights the construction of a copper resource reserve system in China aimed at enhancing the resilience and security of the domestic copper supply chain, amidst a global context of resource competition and increasing copper shortages, which is expected to drive copper prices up due to a "safety premium" [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Resource Reserve System - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced on February 3 that it will enhance the copper resource reserve system by expanding the national copper strategic reserve and exploring a commercial reserve mechanism through fiscal subsidies for state-owned enterprises [1]. - The current high-level copper reserve strategy transcends mere price stabilization and aligns with national goals to ensure the security of critical industrial supply chains [2]. Group 2: Global Copper Market Dynamics - The competition among major powers for resource security is reshaping the copper supply-demand balance, with increased reserves leading to reduced market supply and heightened tension [3]. - The anticipated copper shortage is expected to worsen by 2026, with a projected reduction in global refined copper surplus to 170,000 tons, potentially leading to price increases if China engages in significant reserve purchases [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Demand - Recent declines in copper prices have stimulated downstream demand, with a notable increase in orders for copper rods, which surged to 42,000 tons, marking a historical high [4]. - The improved acceptance of lower copper prices has accelerated procurement activities, enhancing market liquidity and supporting a potential recovery in copper prices [4].