国际观察丨日本大选：两大变量和四种结果

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8 is expected to see the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party secure a majority, although undecided voters and the impact of the "black money" scandal introduce significant uncertainty into the election outcome [1][3]. Polling Insights - Multiple polls since the election announcement on January 27 indicate that the ruling coalition is likely to win a majority of seats [2]. - According to Kyodo News, the LDP may secure a majority of the 465 seats, while the coalition could achieve an "absolute stable majority" of 261 seats, allowing control over all 17 standing committees in the House [3]. - Other polls suggest the LDP could not only secure a majority but potentially exceed 300 seats, with some estimates reaching a two-thirds majority of 310 seats [3]. Key Factors Influencing Election - Two critical factors are identified that could influence the election results: 1. Voter turnout: Higher turnout may favor the LDP, as independent voters, who previously leaned towards opposition parties, are being targeted by the LDP [7]. 2. The "black money" scandal: This scandal has significantly affected public perception of the LDP, with 45% of respondents indicating they would consider political and financial issues when voting [8]. Possible Outcomes - Four potential outcomes of the election could reshape the political landscape: 1. The ruling coalition secures a majority, but the LDP does not achieve a standalone majority, which would stabilize the coalition's position [9]. 2. The LDP wins a majority on its own, enhancing its power relative to the Japan Innovation Party [11]. 3. The ruling coalition fails to secure a majority, but the LDP remains the largest party, leading to a potential leadership change [10]. 4. The "Center Reform Coalition" surpasses the LDP to become the largest party, which could lead to a change in governance, although this scenario is considered unlikely [12].