中信建投期货：2月6日能化早报

Group 1 - Domestic all-latex rubber price is 16,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber price is 15,180 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [4][30] - As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory is 1.281 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons, with a growth rate of 0.7% [4][30] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China is 853,000 tons, up 0.7%, while the total inventory of light rubber is 428,000 tons, up 0.8% [4][30] Group 2 - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is entering a low production season, indicating a shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels [5][31] - Despite expectations of moderate growth in global demand for tires and rubber products by 2026, the growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5][31] - As market expectations cool down, RU and NR are expected to experience a correction [5][31] Group 3 - The PX industry in China has seen a load increase of 0.3 percentage points to 89.5%, while the Asian industry load increased by 0.8 percentage points to 82.4%, indicating a stable supply [6][32] - The demand side is affected by numerous maintenance plans for downstream PTA facilities in the first quarter, which could tighten supply [6][32] - The overall supply-demand pattern for PX is expected to shift to a loose state in the first quarter [6][32] Group 4 - The PTA industry load increased by 1.0 percentage points to 77.6%, but remains low compared to historical levels, with expectations of tightening supply due to maintenance plans [8][34] - The polyester industry load decreased by 4.9 percentage points to 79.3%, indicating a potential acceleration in the decline of industry operations [8][34] - The overall demand is weakening, leading to inventory pressure in the first quarter [8][34] Group 5 - The domestic ethylene glycol industry load increased by 1.8 percentage points to 76.2%, but the overall pressure remains due to sufficient domestic supply [10][36] - February may see the largest inventory pressure of the first half of the year for ethylene glycol [10][36] - The current price levels are not sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts [10][36] Group 6 - The bottle-grade polyester industry has been in a continuous de-inventory phase since the fourth quarter of last year, with significant reductions expected around the Spring Festival [12][41] - The supply side is expected to continue contracting, providing key support for inventory reduction and processing fees [12][41] - The market sentiment is weakening, with short-term price movements expected to remain stable [12][41] Group 7 - The glass market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with supply pressures easing and a decrease in production [17][43] - Recent data shows a slight increase in glass inventory, with production levels declining [17][43] - The overall market is expected to remain stable, with some support from production line maintenance [17][43] Group 8 - The PVC market is facing high supply pressure due to elevated operating rates, despite a significant slowdown in production growth expected in 2026 [22][48] - The short-term outlook remains cautious, with limited improvements in the fundamental market conditions [22][48] - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with reference price ranges set for the main contracts [22][48]