Amazon learns a tough lesson in a market bailing on tech. Why we must be patient

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's shares fell nearly 11% after announcing a $200 billion capital expenditure plan for 2026, which exceeded analyst expectations by about $50 billion, overshadowing a generally strong fourth quarter of 2025 [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q4 2025 increased 14% year over year to $213.39 billion, surpassing expectations of $211.33 billion [1] - Earnings per share (GAAP) rose 5% to $1.95, missing the estimate of $1.97 [1] - Operating income increased 18% year over year to $24.97 billion, beating the consensus forecast of $24.77 billion [1] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue grew 23.6% year over year to $35.58 billion, exceeding estimates by approximately $514 million [2] - Operating margin for AWS was 35.03%, better than the consensus estimate of 33.98% despite a decline of 190 basis points year over year [2] Capital Expenditures - Amazon invested approximately $39.5 billion in capital expenditures in Q4 2025, exceeding the consensus estimate of $35 billion [2] - The total capital expenditures for the full year reached $128 billion, with expectations to increase to $200 billion in 2026, significantly higher than the $146.6 billion forecasted by analysts [2] Guidance and Market Reaction - For Q1 2026, Amazon expects net sales to increase by 11% to 15% year over year, projecting between $173.5 billion and $178.5 billion, which beats the consensus of $175.6 billion [2] - However, the expected operating income for Q1 2026 is between $16 billion and $21.5 billion, with a midpoint of $18.75 billion, which is a significant miss against the estimate of $22.18 billion [2] - The market's negative reaction is attributed to concerns over the high capital expenditures not translating into immediate profit increases [1][2]