把握科技低位布局时点，关注通信ETF（515880）、半导体设备ETF（159516）

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) experienced a slight decline of 0.17% after fluctuating throughout the day, while the communication ETF (515880) saw a more significant drop of 2.47% due to complex internal and external environments and weak market sentiment [1][3]. Market Environment - The decline in the market is attributed to a combination of complex internal and external factors, with a notable drop in the U.S. software sector impacting overall market sentiment, leading to a 1.77% decrease in the Nasdaq and a 0.51% decrease in the S&P 500 [3]. - In the A-share market, continuous volume contraction has triggered profit-taking at high levels, exacerbated by rumors surrounding CPO, which has put pressure on technology stocks [3]. Fundamental Developments - Despite the market challenges, there are positive developments in the fundamental landscape, particularly in overseas computing power. Recent earnings reports indicate a strong outlook, with Meta projecting capital expenditures for 2026 between $115 billion and $135 billion, a 73% increase from $72.2 billion in 2025. Google also raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $180 billion, significantly above the previous analyst estimate of $119.5 billion [3]. - Major companies like TSMC have provided optimistic guidance, reinforcing confidence in the ongoing AI industry wave [3]. CPO and Storage Market Insights - The CPO market is expected to penetrate faster than anticipated, with the Scale Out market primarily led by pluggable optical modules, while the Scale Up market will see growth driven by copper connections and PCBs. The relationship between CPO and optical modules remains non-significant at this stage [4]. - Storage giants like Sandisk and SK Hynix are experiencing exponential growth, with ASML indicating strong demand for storage expansion. The global wafer manufacturing equipment market size has been revised upward to $135 billion for 2026, reflecting improved market conditions [4]. Investment Opportunities - Overall, the technology sector shows a positive trend based on Q4 2025 A-share earnings forecasts and U.S. earnings reports. However, the market faces multiple pressures, suggesting potential opportunities for low-position investments. Key areas to watch include the high demand for optical modules in the overseas computing power sector and the semiconductor equipment sector benefiting from storage expansion [5].