避险属性托底 瑞士法郎高位震荡

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc continues to show strength at the beginning of 2026, supported by its safe-haven status amid global risk volatility and the uncertain U.S. dollar performance [1][2] Exchange Rate Performance - As of 10:10 AM, the USD/CHF exchange rate was around 0.7770, down 0.1285% from the previous trading day, while the CHF/CNY rate was 8.9412, down 27 points, indicating a balanced market [1] - The Swiss Franc has appreciated over 3% against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2026, with a total increase of 12.7% in 2025, marking the highest level in 11 years since 2015 [1] Core Drivers - The primary driver of the Swiss Franc's strength is its safe-haven appeal, bolstered by global geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in U.S. policies, leading to continued inflows into the Swiss Franc [1] - Switzerland's long-standing political neutrality, substantial current account surplus, and low government debt levels further support the Franc's strength, alongside the historical high of gold prices [1] Swiss National Bank Policy Dilemma - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a 0% benchmark interest rate, with inflation at only 0.1%, nearing deflation, which pressures export industry profits due to a strong Franc [2] - The SNB has indicated readiness for negative interest rates and potential market interventions, but no actual actions have been taken yet, leading to a wait-and-see market attitude [2] Technical Analysis and Outlook - The USD/CHF pair is currently in a triangular consolidation pattern, with moderate bullish momentum; key support is at 0.7750, and a rebound could test resistance at 0.7945 [2] - A break below 0.7705 could open up further downside potential, while the Swiss Franc is expected to continue high-level fluctuations, with its safe-haven status as the core support [2]