春节前沥青或震荡趋稳 节后有望走高

Core Viewpoint - The domestic asphalt market is entering a critical window as the 2026 Spring Festival approaches, characterized by a "strong cost support and weak supply-demand" situation, with prices expected to continue rising post-holiday as supply-demand gradually improves and raw material support remains in place [3][5][16]. Supply Side - As of February 4, the average operating load of domestic asphalt plants is 28.08%, reflecting a 1.89 percentage point decrease week-on-week, indicating reduced production activity as the holiday approaches [3][17]. - February production is expected to decrease due to lower operational rates, although some refineries like Lanzhou Petrochemical and CNOOC Zhanjiang plan to resume operations, providing some stability to supply [6][17]. - There are expectations of tightening raw material supply, with potential shortages anticipated in the longer term, which may affect refinery production rates [9][20]. Demand Side - The demand for asphalt is currently weak, particularly in northern regions where construction has halted due to low temperatures, and in southern regions where cold weather has slowed down construction progress [3][14]. - The market demand is primarily supported by social inventory and speculative trading, with a general lack of enthusiasm among traders for stocking up [6][17]. Price Outlook - Pre-holiday, the asphalt market is expected to maintain a stable price trend, with short-term fluctuations influenced by crude oil price volatility, but overall price increases will be limited due to weak demand [6][17]. - Post-holiday, as logistics resume and downstream enterprises restart operations, the asphalt market is anticipated to gradually recover, supported by infrastructure policies and potential increases in construction demand [7][18]. - The average price of asphalt is projected to be around 3,350 yuan/ton in February and may rise to 3,480 yuan/ton in March [10][20].