Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with the current bull market in gold not yet showing signs of ending despite recent volatility triggered by Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - As of February 6, the international gold price is $4783.50 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of $7.87 or 0.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range between $4654.29 and $4793.49 [1]. - The recent volatility in gold and silver prices, which saw declines of 20% and 40% respectively, was a reaction to Warsh's hawkish stance on interest rates and balance sheet reduction, leading to a stronger dollar and a global asset sell-off [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The end of the current bull market in gold may follow two potential paths: either the Federal Reserve halts interest rate cuts and begins balance sheet reduction, or an AI-driven economic growth in the U.S. leads to lower inflation [2]. - Despite recent price corrections, the expectation is that the gold bull market will continue as neither of the aforementioned conditions has yet materialized, with recommendations to strategically overweight gold and buy on dips [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a shift to a weaker trend for gold, with prices breaking below previous support levels, suggesting continued downward pressure [3]. - Short-term resistance is noted in the $4790-$4800 range, while support is anticipated around $4590-$4600, indicating potential for minor rebounds but limited upward momentum [3].
国际黄金牛市未到终点 美联储政策仍是关键变量
Jin Tou Wang·2026-02-06 03:25