中金固收：人民币升值环境下的流动性渐进宽松

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The report discusses the gradual loosening of liquidity in the Chinese monetary market in the context of the renminbi's appreciation, highlighting the transition from a tight to a more relaxed liquidity environment throughout 2025 and projecting continued easing in 2026. Group 1: 2025 Monetary Market Overview - In early 2025, liquidity was tight due to increased government bond supply and pressure to stabilize the exchange rate, leading to a decrease in bank reserves and a rise in funding rates until late February when pressures eased [1][5][6]. - From March onwards, uncertainties from U.S. tariffs and a weakening dollar prompted the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, resulting in a decline in funding rates following a series of rate cuts in May [1][3][5]. - By October, the PBOC resumed government bond trading, which, along with year-end corporate foreign exchange settlement demands, contributed to a further decline in funding rates [1][6]. Group 2: Characteristics of the 2025 Monetary Market - The monetary market in 2025 exhibited several characteristics, including a gradual narrowing of the interest rate spread between funding rates and policy rates, with the 7-day reverse repo rate often acting as a lower bound for the DR007 weighted rate [2][3][32]. - The PBOC's refined liquidity provision strategies led to reduced volatility in funding rates, particularly during seasonal periods such as tax payments and month-end [2][3][38]. - As liquidity conditions improved, the phenomenon of funding stratification diminished, with reduced interest rate differentials between various funding instruments [2][3][43]. Group 3: 2026 Monetary Market Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that liquidity will remain ample, with the PBOC likely to further loosen monetary policy to manage the appreciation pressure on the renminbi and support economic recovery [3][53][54]. - The expected continued appreciation of the renminbi may lead to increased corporate foreign exchange settlements and improved growth in renminbi deposits, further enhancing interbank liquidity [3][62]. - The PBOC is projected to implement more aggressive rate cuts in 2026, with the 7-day reverse repo rate potentially falling to around 1.1%-1.2% and the overnight reverse repo rate to approximately 1.0%-1.2% [3][68].