国信证券:维持百胜中国(09987)“优于大市”评级 2026年门店扩张提速
智通财经网·2026-02-06 06:12

Core Insights - The company has shown resilient same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, prompting an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 to $10.19 billion and $11.06 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2028 at $11.70 billion, corresponding to PE valuations of 17.4x, 15.2x, and 13.8x [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of $28.23 billion, an increase of 8.8%, with operating profit at $1.87 billion (+23.8%) and net profit at $1.40 billion (+21.7%), resulting in an EPS of $0.40 [1] - By brand, KFC generated revenue of $21.25 billion (+8.75%) with an operating profit of $2.23 billion (+16.1%) and an operating margin of 10.5% (+0.7 percentage points). Pizza Hut reported revenue of $5.40 billion (+5.9%) and an operating profit of $20 million (+42.9%) with an operating margin of 3.7% (+1.0 percentage points) [1] - Delivery revenue increased by 34%, with restaurant revenue accounting for 53% of total sales [1] Store Expansion - The total number of stores reached 18,101 by the end of 2025, with KFC and Pizza Hut having 12,997 and 4,168 stores, respectively. In Q4 2025, the company added 587 stores, with KFC and Pizza Hut contributing 357 and 146 stores, respectively. The proportion of franchise stores reached 15% for KFC and 8% for Pizza Hut by the end of 2025 [3] Cost Structure and Profitability - In Q4 2025, salaries and employee benefits accounted for approximately 29.3% of total costs, up by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased delivery costs. Food and raw materials accounted for 31.7%, while property rent and other operating expenses made up about 26.0%. The restaurant profit margin was 13.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by revenue leverage [4] Future Outlook - The company expects to add over 1,900 stores in 2026, with total stores projected to exceed 20,000 by the end of that year. The proportion of franchise stores among new openings is expected to reach 40-50% [5] - The company announced a shareholder return of approximately $1.5 billion for 2026, with expected annual returns of $900 million to over $1 billion for 2027-2028, surpassing $1 billion in 2028 [5]

Guosen Securities-国信证券:维持百胜中国(09987)“优于大市”评级 2026年门店扩张提速 - Reportify