Core Viewpoint - The fuel cell vehicle promotion during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is lagging behind expectations, with the industry facing challenges such as weak growth, poor profitability, and accounts receivable backlog. However, the hydrogen energy strategy remains clear, and new support policies are anticipated, which may help the fuel cell industry gradually overcome short-term difficulties and possess significant long-term growth potential [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 4Q25, a rush to install fuel cell vehicles is expected, but there remains a gap to the 2025 phase target. Since 2024, the sales momentum for fuel cell vehicles has been insufficient, influenced by the policy window period [2]. - The average price of fuel cell systems has decreased by nearly 90% since 2018, posing significant challenges to profitability for manufacturers, with the industry still in a bottoming phase [2]. Group 2: Bottlenecks in Promotion - The promotion of fuel cell vehicles faces multiple obstacles: first, the reduction of subsidies has highlighted cost disadvantages, intensifying competition from electric vehicles; second, the construction speed of hydrogen refueling stations has not met expectations, complicating refueling convenience and reducing investment motivation due to high construction costs; third, the long cycle of subsidy fund disbursement has led to accounts receivable backlog, which may pressure company operations and limit research and expansion capabilities [3]. Group 3: Long-term Development Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, the country positions hydrogen energy as a key component of the future energy system, essential for achieving carbon neutrality in non-electric sectors. Policy-wise, various regions are advancing hydrogen energy industry plans, with ongoing support measures such as toll fee reductions and "hydrogen corridors" construction; application-wise, fuel cell applications are expanding from transportation to power generation, energy storage, and rail transit, indicating a potential second growth curve that supports long-term industry development [4].
中金：我国氢能战略坚定 看好燃料电池行业中长期发展