化工板块领衔反弹，化工ETF国泰（516220）盘中大涨超3%，行业扩产近尾声、盈利有望修复

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a rebound, with the Cathay Chemical ETF (516220) rising over 3% amid nearing end of industry expansion and potential profit recovery [1] Group 1: Industry Data - As of December 2025, the year-on-year decline in PPI has narrowed for the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industries, as well as for the chemical fiber manufacturing industry [1] - Investment growth rate decline in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry has also slowed, while the growth rate in the chemical fiber manufacturing industry has accelerated [1] - Inventory levels in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sectors are decreasing, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 2: Capacity and Investment Trends - New capacity additions are decreasing, and the dual control of carbon emissions is leading to the gradual exit of outdated capacities, contributing to improved supply-demand relationships [1] - The "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims for effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the industry [1] - In Europe, there has been a significant increase in the closure of chemical plant capacities, with new investments notably reduced; in the U.S., major chemical projects planned for 2026 are limited [1] Group 3: ETF and Index Performance - The Cathay Chemical ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813), which selects representative listed companies from the basic chemicals and specialty chemicals sub-industries to reflect the overall performance of related securities [1]