光大期货0206热点追踪：氧化铝逆势反弹，关注减、停产恢复情况

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market is experiencing a short-term rebound despite an overall decline in the non-ferrous sector, with a maximum intraday increase of over 2% noted for alumina prices [2][7]. Production and Capacity - In January, the domestic metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity is expected to be 88.82 million tons, with a production of 7.49 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% [2][7]. - Major producers in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan are undergoing maintenance and reducing output [2][7]. Cost and Profitability - Although the upstream import contract prices have decreased, the transmission of import ore prices to alumina costs will take time, leading to significant losses for companies [2][7]. - The northern regions are facing heavy pollution weather, impacting production and resulting in frequent maintenance of roasting furnaces [2][7]. Market Dynamics - With many previously high-performing commodities facing liquidity crises, undervalued alumina has become a safe haven for capital, leading to a short-term price rebound [2][7]. - The alumina supply remains in surplus, primarily influenced by maintenance of roasting furnaces, with limited reductions in production expected [2][7]. Future Outlook - As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics capacity is anticipated to decline significantly, increasing inventory pressure on alumina plants, which may lead to some companies reducing production [2][7]. - According to Baichuan Yingfu, the alumina market is expected to see both increases and decreases in production in February, with overall operating capacity showing slight fluctuations and a stable supply outlook [2][7]. - After the short-term rebound, alumina prices may still face upward pressure due to supply surplus, indicating limited room for further price increases, with market sentiment being a key factor to monitor [2][7].