智通财经网·2026-02-06 07:18Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates a significant increase in storage product prices since Q1 2026, with expectations for continued price rises throughout the year due to limited global supply and increasing demand, particularly driven by AI applications [1] Demand Side - AI inference is driving exponential growth in storage demand, establishing NAND as the foundational capacity for data centers [2] - The storage architecture is evolving towards a "HBM+DRAM+NAND" three-tier pyramid, with NAND playing a crucial role in cost reduction and efficiency [2] - The global storage bit demand is expected to maintain a CAGR of 20%, with data center DRAM and NAND projected to grow at CAGRs of 28.3% and 32.6% respectively from 2023 to 2030, significantly outpacing traditional endpoint growth [2] Supply Side - Capital expenditures from major manufacturers are accelerating in 2026, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron expected to invest $20 billion, $20.5 billion, and $13.5 billion respectively, but effective capacity release will be delayed until after 2027 [3] - The supply-demand mismatch is expected to persist until 2027, with DRAM and NAND shipment growth rates projected to remain around 20% due to capacity constraints [3] Inventory Side - There is a notable divergence in inventory levels across the supply chain, with original manufacturers experiencing tight inventory levels throughout 2026 [4] - Chinese module manufacturers have significantly increased their inventory levels by 34% year-on-year in Q3, preparing for the anticipated supply-demand gap in 2026 [4] Price Side - The AI capacity squeeze is leading to an expanding supply-demand gap, with contract prices for DRAM and NAND expected to rise sharply in Q1 2026, with increases of 90-95% and 55-60% respectively [5] - Overall price trends are expected to remain high despite minor adjustments in specific segments like DDR4 [5] Sales Side - The supply-demand mismatch is driving simultaneous increases in volume and price across the entire industry chain, with DRAM and Flash market value projected to reach $551.6 billion in 2026, a 134% increase [6] - The industry is entering a performance explosion phase, with major manufacturers achieving record revenues and profits due to AI demand and long-term contracts [7]