日本大型银行虽亏损持续扩大 仍准备增持日本国债

Core Viewpoint - Japan's major banks, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, plan to increase their holdings of Japanese government bonds despite ongoing unrealized losses in their existing bond portfolios, as rising interest rates are expected to yield higher returns [1][4]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Japanese government bond yields have significantly increased since November, driven by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's spending plans, impacting bond valuations [2]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield has decreased by 32 basis points from its historical high of 3.88% on January 20 [2]. - The current 10-year Japanese government bond yield stands at 2.195% [12]. Group 2: Bank Strategies and Financial Impact - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group reported an unrealized loss of 200 billion yen (approximately 1.3 billion USD) in its bond portfolio at year-end, a substantial increase from 40 billion yen at the end of March [2][8]. - Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group's unrealized losses on Japanese government bonds more than doubled to 98 billion yen over the past nine months [4]. - Both banks are cautiously planning to rebuild their Japanese government bond holdings as long-term interest rates show signs of peaking [2][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Profitability - Analysts predict that as the scale of long-term Japanese government bond holdings increases and yields rise, banks' profitability is expected to improve in the coming years [7][13]. - Goldman Sachs analysts have raised profit forecasts for the three major banks, reflecting the impact of recent interest rate hikes and rising bond yields [13]. - The net profit forecasts for Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and Mizuho Financial Group have been adjusted upwards by 20%, 11%, and 21% respectively [13].