流动性低迷加剧价格剧烈波动 白银再度宽幅震荡

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are experiencing extreme volatility, with a significant drop of nearly 10% followed by a rapid rebound, indicating a lack of bottom support in the market [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - During the Asian trading session on Friday, spot silver prices rose by 6.2% after previously falling to around $64 per ounce; the day before, silver had plummeted by 20%, erasing all gains from the previous month [1][6]. - The volatility in silver prices is exacerbated by the market's smaller size and relatively low liquidity, making silver's price fluctuations more severe than those of gold [1][6]. - Recent silver price movements are among the most extreme since 1980, with speculative momentum and reduced off-exchange liquidity amplifying the volatility [1][8]. - Since reaching a historical high on January 29, silver prices have declined by over one-third [1][8]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors have been increasing large positions in precious metals, particularly in leveraged exchange-traded products and call options throughout January, but this trend abruptly halted with a record single-day drop in silver on January 30 [3][8]. - A significant reduction in Chinese buying has left silver without support, with domestic silver prices shifting from a premium to a discount relative to international benchmarks [3][8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver holdings have fallen to their lowest level in over four years, indicating ongoing position liquidations [3][8]. - Analysts note that long positions are being liquidated while short positions are being closed for profit, especially as the Chinese New Year approaches [3][8]. Group 3: Comparison with Gold - The gold market, which has better liquidity, is performing better than silver, with several banks and asset management firms reaffirming a long-term bullish outlook on gold [5][10]. - A fund manager from Fidelity, who sold gold before the recent drop, is preparing to buy again, while the head of commodity investment at Pacific Investment Management Company believes the upward trend in gold remains intact [5][10]. - However, the extreme volatility in precious metals raises concerns about their effectiveness as a risk hedge, with some strategists suggesting that Bitcoin may have greater long-term appeal than gold [5][10]. - As of 2:25 PM Singapore time, spot silver rose by 4.5% to $74.09 per ounce, while spot gold increased by 1.7% to $4,860.27 per ounce [5][10].