长城基金陈子扬：看好黄金、小金属、化工等板块

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing structural characteristics in January 2026, with the non-ferrous metal sector being one of the most focused industries this year. The manager of Changcheng Fund, Chen Ziyang, emphasizes the importance of balancing market conditions and valuations to identify quality investment targets [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Chen Ziyang, who has been in the cyclical sector for eight years, believes that short-term fluctuations are merely noise and do not significantly impact investment outcomes. Long-term investment requires patience and rationality, respecting cyclical patterns by investing during undervaluation and exiting during overvaluation [1][4]. - This year, the strategy includes seeking opportunities in the cyclical sector with relatively low valuations. Chen Ziyang is cautiously optimistic about gold and small metals, while being cautious about copper and aluminum [5][6]. Group 2: Market Insights - The outlook for small metals is closely tied to strategic reserves, as they are widely used in technology and military sectors. The current geopolitical turmoil has led countries to increase their strategic metal reserves, combined with the scarcity of small metal supply and no new production capacity expected in the next two years, indicating significant upside potential [2][5]. - Within the cyclical sector, the chemical industry is viewed favorably. The non-ferrous sector has nearly doubled in value last year, with institutional allocation at a relatively high level. In contrast, the chemical sector's current valuation is at a low percentile, with profit expectations gradually recovering, making it a key focus area this year [2][5]. Group 3: Industry Risks - The current rise in industrial metals is primarily driven by structural demand. However, consumption in both domestic and U.S. markets shows a K-shaped recovery. If U.S. real estate and consumption do not recover post-rate cuts, it could pose significant pressure on the cyclical sector, particularly for the chemical industry, which is closely linked to traditional economic activities [6].