长安期货刘琳：生猪现货主导 价格依旧承压

Market Overview - From mid to late January, live pig futures and spot prices experienced a smooth decline, with the LH03 contract dropping from a peak of 12,160 to below 11,000, a decrease of 1.32%. National standard pig prices fell from 13.2 yuan/kg to 11.95 yuan/kg, a drop of 9.5%, while fat pig prices decreased from 13.87 yuan/kg to 13.16 yuan/kg, down 5.1% [20][21] - The primary reason for the price shift from increase to decrease is attributed to the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a decline in the breeding sow population to 39.61 million by the end of December 2024, coupled with slow capacity reduction and diminishing demand for cured meat [20][21] Fundamental Analysis Industry Profit and Capacity Cycle - The core indicator of the pig cycle is the breeding sow inventory, with industry profitability being the key determinant of changes in this inventory. Typically, industry losses lead to capacity reduction, while profitability halts further reduction [21] - From June 2021 to June 2022, the industry faced continuous losses, resulting in a decrease in breeding sow inventory from 44 million to 41.92 million, a reduction of 2.08 million. Similarly, from December 2022 to May 2024, the inventory dropped from 43.90 million to 39.86 million, a decrease of 1.04 million [21] - The current loss period lasted from September to December, with a reduction of 740,000 sows from approximately 4.035 million to 3.961 million. The data from January indicates a slight increase in breeding sows to 5.1882 million, suggesting potential for further capacity reduction in the future [21] Piglet Price Recovery - The average price of piglets across 500 markets rose to 26.87 yuan/kg in the fifth week of January, an increase of 3.5% week-on-week, although the weekly growth rate has narrowed by 1%. Year-on-year, prices are down 23.2% [23][24] - The average price for 7 kg piglets from large-scale farms is 357.62 yuan/head, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.2% and a year-on-year drop of 33.2%. Optimism regarding capacity reduction has strengthened demand for piglets, leading to a broad price increase, although the upcoming Spring Festival is expected to limit further growth [23][24] Post-Festival Weight Increase - In December 2025 to January 2026, due to a temporary rebound in pig prices, actual slaughter exceeded targets, with over 14 million pigs slaughtered. However, plans for February show a significant reduction in slaughtering due to the Spring Festival, with a planned output of 12.0586 million pigs, a decrease of 15.33% from January [26] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered on February 6 was 123.26 kg, a slight decrease from the previous week. The price gap between standard and fat pigs has widened to 1.21 yuan/kg, indicating potential for weight increases post-festival as consumption slows [26] Consumption Trends - The slaughtering rate for enterprises was reported at 38.49% for the week of February 5, an increase of 1.63 percentage points week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 27.65 percentage points. However, historical data shows that rates typically exceed 40% during this period [28] - As the Spring Festival approaches, demand for meat is expected to rise, leading to increased slaughtering rates and a gradual increase in the price gap between live and processed pigs [28] Futures Market Structure - The current structure of the May contract reflects a contango situation, indicating high industry inventory and sustained pressure on prices. The basis for the May contract is currently 1,075 yuan/ton, with expectations of continued weakness in the spot market [30] - The recent decline in prices has resulted in a contango structure for the first three quarters of the year, suggesting that futures prices will remain under pressure until a significant change in market conditions occurs [30] Summary and Outlook - The slow pace of capacity reduction combined with the contango structure suggests that live pig futures will remain under pressure in the long term. The pre-festival period may see increased demand, but post-festival, consumption is expected to weaken significantly while supply remains ample, leading to downward pressure on prices [33]