“高市交易”再度活跃 投资者为高市早苗赢得日本众议院选举做准备

Group 1 - Investors are preparing for a decisive victory for Prime Minister Kishi's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the upcoming elections, leading to increased buying of Japanese stocks and selling of the yen and Japanese bonds [1][4] - Polls indicate that the LDP is likely to win an absolute majority in the House of Representatives, reviving the so-called "Kishi trade" despite a global stock market downturn, with the Tokyo stock market rising and the yen weakening [1][4] - Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policy following Kishi's proposal to lower consumption tax, resulting in significant selling of ultra-long Japanese bonds [1][4] Group 2 - Schroders and Morgan Asset Management have expressed a cautious stance on Japanese government bonds, particularly ultra-long bonds, due to concerns over fiscal sustainability [1][4] - Analysts maintain a bearish outlook on the election results, suggesting that if the LDP secures an absolute majority, it could lead to a high-pressure economy without credible spending cuts or debt reduction plans, keeping risk premiums elevated [3][6] - The ongoing weakness of the yen has influenced interest rate expectations, with traders anticipating a greater than 70% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan before April [6][7]