10倍牛股巨亏，中信给出上千元目标价？

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has issued a "buy" rating for Baile Tianheng, setting a target price of no more than 1322 yuan, predicting a net profit of -760 million yuan for 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - As of the report's release, Baile Tianheng's A-share price was 282.30 yuan per share, having increased over tenfold since its listing two years ago [1] - The predicted price implies a potential increase of over 468%, with a market capitalization exceeding 546 billion yuan if the target price is reached [1] - However, four days later, Baile Tianheng announced an earnings forecast indicating a net profit of approximately -1.1 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decline of about 129.67%, significantly worse than CITIC Securities' forecast [3] - The expected revenue for 2025 is around 2.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 57.06% [3] - Historical performance shows Baile Tianheng's net profit fluctuating dramatically, with figures of -100 million yuan, -282 million yuan, -781 million yuan, and 3.708 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [5] Group 2: Research and Development - Baile Tianheng has increased its R&D investment to accelerate product pipeline development, which has led to a significant rise in R&D expenses [3] - The company has 17 innovative drugs in clinical trials, with 6 in global trials, and is conducting over 100 clinical trials worldwide [7] - The core product Iza-bren has received priority review status from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for new indications, which is a key reason for CITIC Securities' positive outlook [4] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - Baile Tianheng's collaboration with Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) on Iza-bren is progressing well, achieving a milestone in the global II/III phase key registration clinical trial, resulting in a milestone payment of 250 million USD [3] - The previous year, the company received an irrevocable and non-deductible upfront payment of 800 million USD from BMS, which contributed to higher income recognition in the prior period compared to the current period [3]