加息哨声已再次吹响，全球央行“大分流”！

Core Viewpoint - The global financial landscape is experiencing a significant divergence, with central banks in the US and UK remaining on the edge of monetary easing, while those in Australia, New Zealand, and Japan have entered a tightening phase [1][20]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for the first time in two years, indicating a shift towards tightening monetary policy [1][20]. - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both maintained their interest rates, with the latter's decision reflecting a dovish stance, as evidenced by a narrow 5-4 voting outcome [6][26]. - The Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged, suggesting a prolonged period before any potential rate cuts, despite market expectations for a 25 basis point cut before July [3][23]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - In the UK, slowing wage growth has led to expectations of a near 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, following a significant drop in the 2-year government bond yield [6][26]. - Norway's core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.1% in December, indicating resilient domestic demand, despite the central bank's cautious stance on potential rate cuts [7][27]. - New Zealand's annualized inflation rate accelerated to 3.1%, prompting expectations for two 25 basis point rate hikes by the end of the year as the country shifts towards a hawkish stance [14][34]. Group 3: Global Comparisons - The Swiss National Bank maintains a 0% interest rate, the lowest among major central banks, facing challenges with low price pressures and a strong Swiss franc [8][28]. - The Bank of Canada has kept rates at 2.25%, citing geopolitical risks and uncertainties in US trade policy as potential threats to economic stability [9][29]. - Japan's central bank, which previously stood alone in its tightening approach, now faces pressures from a weakening yen and rising price pressures, complicating its policy path [10][36].