Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold ALAB Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release?

Core Insights - Astera Labs (ALAB) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 10, with projected revenues between $245 million and $253 million, indicating a 6% to 10% increase from the previous quarter [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to be approximately 51 cents, reflecting a 37.84% growth compared to the same quarter last year [3] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is currently at $249.79 million, which represents a 77.03% increase from the year-ago quarter [2] - ALAB's earnings have consistently exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 29.79% [3] Growth Drivers - The revenue growth for Astera Labs in Q4 2025 is likely driven by increasing demand for AI servers and data center infrastructure, particularly across its product lines: Aries, Scorpio, and Taurus [4] - The Aries product line, especially the PCIe Gen 6 smart retimers, is expected to significantly contribute to growth, with over 20% of third-quarter revenues coming from this segment [5] - Scorpio P-Series fabric switches are anticipated to maintain robust demand, contributing to revenue growth, while initial shipments of Scorpio X-Series solutions will also support this growth [6] - Taurus smart cable modules are expected to see strong demand for their 400-Gig designs, which are essential for AI scale-out connectivity [7] Competitive Landscape - Astera Labs faces stiff competition from companies like Credo Technology, Marvell Technology, and Broadcom, which are also expanding their product offerings in the connectivity space [8][16] - Marvell Technology's recent acquisition of Celestial AI enhances its capabilities in scale-up optical connectivity for large-scale AI deployments [17] - Broadcom has reported a 65% year-over-year increase in AI revenue, reaching $20 billion, driven by demand for AI semiconductors and infrastructure software [17] Financial Metrics - Research and development expenses surged by 55.8% year-over-year to $78.9 million in Q3 2025, with non-GAAP operating expenses expected to rise to approximately $85 million to $90 million in Q4 2025 [8][9] - Non-GAAP gross margins are projected to decline to around 75% in Q4 2025, down from 76.4% in Q3, due to a higher mix of lower-margin Taurus hardware modules [9] Stock Performance and Valuation - Astera Labs shares have declined by 19.7% over the past six months, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which returned 10.6% [10] - The stock is currently trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 20.34X, significantly higher than the industry average of 4.04X, indicating a stretched valuation [13]