Stifel predicts bitcoin crash to $38,000. Yes, you read it right.

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are predicting a significant drop in bitcoin prices, with Stifel forecasting a potential low of $38,000, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Price Trends - Bitcoin has already decreased by 41% from its peak, with analysts suggesting a linear trend that indicates a possible low of around $38,000 based on historical crash data [2]. - The cryptocurrency reached a high of over $126,000 in October but has since fallen to nearly $70,000, levels not seen since November 2024 [3]. Market Dynamics - The relationship between bitcoin and the dollar has reversed since 2025; previously, bitcoin would rise when the dollar fell, but now it tends to decline alongside the dollar [5][6]. - The Dollar Index has dropped nearly 1% this year, continuing a trend from the previous year where it fell by nearly 10% [5]. Correlation with Technology Stocks - Bitcoin's performance is closely tied to the Nasdaq 100 index and growth stocks, responding to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts [7]. - Despite interest rate cuts by the Fed in late 2025, the overall tone has been hawkish, which could lead to financial tightening and negatively impact both stock valuations and the bitcoin market [8].