ZACKS·2026-02-06 20:00Industry Overview - Quantum computing is in a nascent yet strategically critical phase, with global revenues projected to reach $2 billion in 2026, primarily driven by defense and aerospace applications [2] - McKinsey estimates show rapid revenue growth from $650–$750 million in 2024 to expectations of surpassing $1 billion in 2025, indicating a year-over-year growth of 30–40%, but growth is expected to moderate to $2 billion in 2026 [3] - The growth trajectory in 2026 is influenced by geopolitical rivalries, fiscal pressures, and macroeconomic headwinds, leading to a deceleration compared to the investment surges seen in 2024–2025 [5] Company Analysis IonQ (IONQ) - IonQ is positioned as a front-runner in quantum hardware commercialization, leveraging trapped-ion qubit technology and strategic acquisitions to enhance its market reach [14] - The company reported strong year-over-year growth in 2025, with earnings growth projected at 65.8% and revenue growth at 83.3% for 2026 [15] - IonQ's quarterly results exceeded guidance, and its acquisitions of Oxford Ionics and SkyWater Technology are expected to bolster its hardware and supply chain capabilities [14] International Business Machines (IBM) - IBM is advancing its quantum computing prospects with the introduction of the Quantum Nighthawk processor and an expanded Qiskit toolchain, aiming for quantum advantage by 2026 [18] - The company is projected to report earnings growth of 6.6% and revenue growth of 5.5% in 2026, following a 34.7% stock gain in 2025 [19] - IBM's participation in DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative and its disciplined approach to hardware milestones reflect a commitment to scalable use cases and ecosystem adoption [18] D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) - D-Wave Quantum is showing early traction in optimization use cases with its annealing-based systems, but remains vulnerable to funding cycles as adoption scales [4][10]