美国债市：国债在股市反弹之际维持跌势 收益率曲线趋平

Core Viewpoint - The strong preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for February has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, partially reversing the bullish trend observed on Thursday [1][9]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market saw strong buying interest on dips, while Treasury yields ended slightly below their daily highs [1][9]. - Short-term Treasury yields rose approximately 4 basis points during the day, with the 2s10s and 5s30s yield spreads flattening by about 2 basis points [10]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The flattening of the yield curve was driven by two large risk-weighted matching futures trades involving 2-year and super 10-year Treasury futures contracts [11]. - As the stock market rebounded and swap spreads stabilized, the decline in Treasury prices expanded, particularly after the Michigan survey results exceeded expectations [11]. - By 3 PM, the trading volume of U.S. Treasury futures was about 90% of the 20-day average, with 2-year Treasury futures being the most active, showing a 25% increase in volume compared to the average [11]. Group 3: Yield Changes - As of 4:14 PM Eastern Time, the 2-year Treasury yield increased by 4.51 basis points to 3.4955% [12]. - The 5-year Treasury yield rose by 3.63 basis points to 3.755% [13]. - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2.39 basis points to 4.204% [14]. - The 30-year Treasury yield rose by 1.23 basis points to 4.853% [15]. - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries decreased by 1.91 basis points to 70.645 basis points [16]. - The yield spread between the 5-year and 30-year Treasuries decreased by 2.23 basis points to 109.802 basis points [17].