Clearway Energy Has Accelerating Growth From AI Buildout

Core Viewpoint - Clearway Energy (CWEN) has made significant changes that support its ambitious growth guidance, projecting a Cash Available For Distribution (CAFD) of $2.90-$3.10 by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7%-8% through 2030 [2][4]. Company Guidance - CWEN's long-term guidance includes a target CAFD of $2.90-$3.10 by 2030, reflecting a growth rate of 7%-8% CAGR [2]. - The growth rate is considered unusual for a yield-co, which typically focuses on steady cash flows to pay dividends, limiting retained cash for further investments [3][4]. Market Environment - The demand for energy has surged, driven by the rise of AI and the need for increased power capacity, while regulatory frameworks have not kept pace with this demand [5][6]. - CWEN is well-positioned to capitalize on this demand due to its developer mindset and a parent company pipeline of over 11 GW, which will be dropped down into CWEN at strong CAFD yields [6]. Project Pipeline - CWEN has a robust pipeline of projects, with several repowering initiatives already in progress, targeting CAFD yields of about 10.5% [12][14]. - The company has 863 MW of repowering projects locked in with power purchase agreements (PPAs), which are expected to yield double-digit returns [17]. Pricing Trends - Power purchase agreement (PPA) pricing has nearly doubled, which positively impacts CWEN's yield and organic growth potential [8][19]. - Historical PPA prices have seen a significant decline, but recent trends indicate a recovery, with prices expected to stabilize around $70/MWh for solar and wind by 2025-2026 [31][32]. Organic Growth Potential - The upward trend in PPA prices enhances CWEN's organic growth prospects, allowing for better contract renewals and reducing the risk of revenue declines from expiring contracts [34][36]. - CWEN aims to maintain a growth rate of CAFD per share at 5% or more beyond 2030, supported by favorable market conditions [37]. Share Structure and Valuation - CWEN has a dual share structure, with CWEN.A trading at a discount compared to CWEN, presenting an arbitrage opportunity for investors [38][39]. - The current valuation suggests that a 16X CAFD multiple is reasonable, given the company's growth ambitions and market conditions [37].