光伏“反内卷”仍是重中之重

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry maintains a dominant global position, but is currently undergoing significant adjustments, with "anti-involution" governance being a key focus for 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Achievements - The manufacturing sector of the photovoltaic industry has surpassed a production value of 1 trillion yuan, with total exports exceeding 180 billion USD and cumulative installed capacity exceeding 1,200 GW [2]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the cumulative new installed capacity of photovoltaic systems was 4.5 times that of the "13th Five-Year Plan," and the cumulative new power generation was 3.6 times higher [2]. - Prices across various segments of the photovoltaic supply chain have significantly decreased, with reductions exceeding 60%, and silicon wafer prices dropping by as much as 82.8% [2]. - By 2025, China's global market share in polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules is projected to be 96.0%, 96.2%, 91.3%, and 80.1%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, facing significant challenges due to unresolved supply-demand mismatches [3]. - The overall performance of photovoltaic A-share listed companies for 2025 indicates that the industry remains in a loss zone, although some companies are beginning to narrow their losses [3]. - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 6 to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, a reduction of approximately 30% compared to the previous year's loss of 8.6 billion yuan [3]. - TCL Zhonghuan and JA Solar have also reported reduced losses, with TCL Zhonghuan's expected loss for 2025 being between 8.2 billion and 9.6 billion yuan, down 11% to 24% from over 10 billion yuan the previous year [3]. Group 3: Future Directions - The industry is shifting towards high-quality competition, with "anti-involution" being a central theme for governance [4][5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need for comprehensive measures to promote healthy competition and rational development in the photovoltaic sector [4]. - The upcoming removal of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, is expected to pressure profit margins in the short term but will accelerate capacity clearing and encourage technological innovation in the long term [5].